Global Energy Transition: Cost Declines, Geopolitical Shocks, and the Unstoppable Rise of Renewables
The global energy sector is undergoing a paradigm shift driven by decarbonization, digitalization, and decentralization. Between 2010 and 2018, solar PV costs fell 77% and onshore wind costs dropped 35%, while renewable electricity production rose 7% in 2018 alone. China emerged as the dominant force, accounting for 37% of offshore wind and 44% of solar PV growth that year. Looking ahead, global renewable energy demand is projected to surge 64% by 2030. Yet recent disruptions—COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine—have triggered price spikes and energy security fears. This article examines the interplay between long-term cost trends, China's supply chain influence, and short-term geopolitical volatility, offering insights into how the energy transition can remain resilient.